Political Situation

The Political Situation in Nepal & Tibet

Nepal

End of Nepal monarchy - or trouble?

By Charles Haviland
BBC News
image
YCL members in Kathmandu
Young Maoists are suspected of being behind some of the violence
Nepal's most powerful parties have agreed that the 240-year-old monarchy will be abolished, yielding to a demand put by the Maoist former rebels when they walked out of the interim government three months ago.

The historic decision reverses a clause of last year's peace agreement which said the fate of the royals would be decided by a popularly-elected assembly.

Parliament must now change the temporary constitution.

It will be left to the assembly, once elected, to actually scrap the monarchy - but that is looking almost inevitable.

The move concludes a dismal year of continuing violence, new militant ethnic sentiment and endless political squabbling - a big contrast to 2006 which saw the end of the Maoist insurgency and, earlier, King Gyanendra's climb-down from direct rule.

Punitive acts

Although their walk-out meant elections were postponed for a second time, the Maoists say they will now rejoin the cabinet and stand in polls rescheduled for next spring.

Speaking to the BBC, senior Maoist leader C.P. Gajurel denied his party feared facing the voters.

"We are committed to multi-party democracy, peaceful competition in the election," he said. But, he added, "definitely we will not go for the previous so-called parliament". The Maoists, Mr Gajurel said, wanted a new kind of parliament where "oppressed classes can compete".

image
Pradeep Gyawali
"We have suspicions about the integrity of the Maoists"
Pradeep Gyawali
Former minister

The Maoists' democratic credentials are yet to be tested.

Their new youth wing, the Young Communist League or YCL, is doing some useful things such as road works and city clean-ups.

But the YCL - believed to include many former fighters now meant to be in camps under United Nations supervision - is also committing many punitive acts.

A senior doctor, Gyanendra Giri, told me about his abduction by 30 YCL members after a disgruntled acquaintance asked the young Maoists to punish him. He was tortured for 14 hours with rods, boots and fists.

The Maoists have also admitted to killing a journalist in southern Nepal.

With similar incidents continuing, their embarrassed leaders have apologised in some, but not all, cases.

Suspicions

Some politicians are critical.

"We have suspicions about the integrity of the Maoists, about their fully entering in the democratic system and total abandonment of violence," says former minister and peace negotiator Pradeep Gyawali.

Political writer Deepak Thapa says there is also a wider sense of anarchy, with anyone feeling they can take direct action, law and order worsening, and the government barely responding.

Rajan Mukti, Terai independence campaigner
Rajan Mukti believes the armed struggle will bring the Terai rights
People aggrieved by almost anything will put up road blockades. "They feel that is the only way they can get their voices heard," says Mr Thapa.

In that unstable atmosphere, there are other big questions, too. The United Nations peace mission here, Unmin, is concerned about what will happen to the thousands of former Maoist fighters now confined in camps.

Will the conservative Nepal Army agree to absorb them? Will it accept the abolition of the monarchy it has so loyally served in the past? Indeed, how will King Gyanendra - currently keeping a very low profile - react?

Madhesis ask questions

Perhaps most worrying of Nepal's new troubles is the violence in the Terai, the southern plains, where an ethnic community known as the Madhesis - roughly a third of Nepal's population - is now demanding rights after years of neglect.

People of hill origin, loosely known as Pahadis, have always ruled Nepal. The Madhesis complain there is no sign of this changing.

image
Dr Vijay Singh
"The representation of Madhesis is almost nil"
Vijay Singh
Madhesi cause supporter
Political violence has killed over 100 people there this year.

In the city of Janakpur a prosperous doctor, Vijay Singh, dressed in a lungi like a sarong, served me tea. An assertive advocate of the Madhesi cause, he dismisses the notion that Madhesis feel closer to India, despite cultural similarities.

"We are essentially Nepalese," he said. "[But] we have not been provided citizenship easily. In all the structure of Nepal, the police structure, army structure, any wing of the government, the representation of Madhesis is almost nil."

Many groups voicing such grievances have formed. Some are moderate. Some are militant, carrying out constant killings and kidnappings.

In a secret location I met Rajan Mukti, an unsmiling 25-year-old in a white shirt and red scarf, representing a major underground group called the JTMM Jwala Singh faction.

He wants complete independence for the Terai.

"Our liberation army punishes anyone who supports the absolute rule of the hill people. We want to destroy those Pahadi people who have absolute power and those supporting them."

'Security problem'

Ethnicity makes many a target. I visited Madhav Acharya, an old, deaf man. A militant group has confiscated the land where he grows his paddy.

"More than 70% of the Pahadis here in Janakpur have left. They've been displaced," he said.

People of the Terai
The Madhesis - a third of the population - want more rights
"But it's difficult for me. My children are studying. I can't go anywhere else. I'm scared, but I don't know who to turn to."

Conversely, Madhesi campaigners say the authorities ignore their grievances. Madhesi human rights activist Dipendra Jha fears that a new task force sent in to tackle violence is counter-productive.

"Most of the armed forces are from the hilly area," he says. "They don't know about the cultural, social sensitivity of the Terai. Most politicians perceive the problems in the Terai as a security problem rather than looking at the political, social, economic, cultural demands. So the situation is getting worse and worse."

In several other regions, too, as ethnic sentiment grows, self-defence groups are emerging in the name of different communities.

In fact, Nepal consists of dozens of minorities, geographically intermingled but now demanding a voice.

They will be hoping to be better heard, as under the new agreement more than half the assembly members will be elected under proportional representation.

But in a deeply uneven, caste-dominated, male-dominated society, securing real change will not be easy.

Getting rid of the monarchy may be just one small detail in a much larger process of upheaval.

Travel advice from the British Embassy in Kathmandu

Current 17th March 2008

SUMMARY

  • The Government of Nepal has announced that elections will be held on 10 April 2008. It is very likely that there will be bandhs (shutdowns), rallies and demonstrations in the run-up. In January 2008 demonstrations, related to an increase in fuel prices, turned violent.

  • The security situation in Nepal remains subject to change due to the political volatility in the country, which is likely to continue until the planned elections are held. On 28 February 2008 a 16-day Bandh across the Terai was lifted.  However, if you intend to travel to the region you should remain vigilant and remain in close touch with your tour operator.  See the Political Situation and Local Travel sections of this advice for more details.

  • The shortage of fuel and cooking gas and other essential supplies, caused by the Terai bandh, continues to have a major impact on Kathmandu.  While the situation should now improve it will take some time before all services return to normal.  Before travelling you should check with your tour operator or hotel that they are able to provide an acceptable level of service and security.

  • You should avoid large gatherings and demonstrations.  Bandhs, rallies and demonstrations can cause widespread disruption and can be called at short notice, leaving transport severely disrupted and blocking roads and major highways.  See the Political Situation and Local Travel sections of this advice for more details.

  • 25,000 British nationals visited Nepal in 2007 (source: Nepal Tourist Board). Most visits were trouble free. The main types of incident for which British nationals required consular assistance in Nepal in 2007 were: replacing lost and stolen passports; arrests, mainly drug-related; and hospitalisations, generally as a result of trekking accidents. You are strongly advised to use a reputable travel agent and only trek with an experienced guide and in a group.

  • We also strongly recommend that you obtain comprehensive travel and medical insurance before travelling.  You should check for any exclusions, and that your policy covers you for all the activities you plan to undertake.

Tibet

There are reports of widespread unrest in the city of Lhasa. There is no indication that foreigners are being targeted, but there is potential that you could be caught up in the violence. You are advised to avoid areas where demonstrations are taking place and avoid unnecessary movement within the city until the situation is under control. We understand that air and rail connections to Lhasa are operating, although there may be a risk of disruption.  Travellers should keep in close touch with their tour operators. We have received reports of a curfew in Lhasa. Foreign nationals should comply with the terms of any curfew as explained to them by the local authorities, their tour operator or hotel.

More news from Tibet will be posted as soon as we have it available.


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